2012 NHL Draft

Well, I figured considering that most of the college hockey world is abuzz with news of the 2012 NHL Draft, that it deserved a new thread on PoPF. Maybe some of us are a little disappointed with the fact that no Penn State prospects were chosen in the 2012 NHL Draft, but I do not think it is really a cause for alarm. Anyways, to start, here's the breakdown of 2012 NHL Drafts picks:

B1G Members
Michigan
Trouba (9th Overall)
Di Giuseppe (38th Overall)
Nieves (59th Overall)
Carrick (137th Overall)

Michigan State
Maceachern (67th Overall)
Draeger (68th Overall)
Holland (102nd Overall)
DeBlouw (186th Overall)

Minnesota
Skjei (28th Overall)
Bischoff (185th Overall)
Nanne (188th Overall)

Ohio State
Stepan (112th Overall)
Olson (159th Overall)
Watson (168th Overall)
Tomkins (199th Overall)

Wisconsin
Kerdiles (36th Overall)
McCabe (44th Overall)
Woods (129th Overall)

2012-13 Penn State Opponents
Miami
Barber (167th Overall)

Union
Gostisbehere (78th Overall)
Boyle (106th Overall)

Vermont
Girgensons (14th Overall)

Opponents with No NHL Draft picks in 2012:
AIC, RIT, Army, Sacred Heart, Air Force, Holy Cross, RMU, UConn, Alabama-Huntsville

What I find interesting is the dynamic within the B1G, especially when that dynamic is compared to the teams that are perennial national powers. Most of us agree that there are three tiers in the B1G. Those that have limited or no history of national success (Ohio State and, at the moment, at least, Penn State), those that are considered nationally relevant but not dominant (Michigan State), and those that are dominant and frequently national-title contenders (Michigan and Minnesota). Wisconsin is the odd program because it is usually in the second-to-last group, but peaks very sharply and abruptly into the lattermost group.

The number of 2012 NHL Draft picks has Ohio State and Michigan State with as many picks as Michigan. Shockingly, Wisconsin and Minnesota have the least. Ohio State can be distinguished from Michigan and Michigan State in that the picks of the latter two came much earlier than Ohio State's picks. However, the raw numbers might indicate that the Buckeyes won't be the push-over of the league that many thought they might be. This makes it more enticing to think of them as Penn State's rival.

I am unsure what to think of Minnesota's low number of draft picks. It is odd. Especially, considering I think that Minnesota was the program in the 2012 NCAAs with the largest number of draft picks. It was the program with the most in the 2012 Frozen Four.

I do not think there is any reason to be upset. Penn State has a talented recruiting class coming in for the 2012-13 season. Many of the players that are coming in as freshman were draft ineligible. And those that were eligible, will be eligible for the 2013 NHL Draft.

Luka Juha, Curtis Loik, and Mark Yanis will be eligible for the 2013 NHL Draft. I think that Penn State will earn at least one pick out of them. I think that Yanis particularly is a player that will get picked up. Then, there are future recruiting classes who will enter or progress in their drafting eligibility.

Television exposure will increase the likelihood that players will get drafted. Penn State is bound to appear on regional and national television programs next season. I am hoping that Penn State will appear on the Big Ten Network, and maybe NBC Sports and CBS Sports next season. I think an interesting bit of information is that two of Cornell's three drafted players scored goals against Michigan in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. So, the national exposure of the program and individual players helps. Penn State had that working against the program this season with no direct, national exposure of the program.

Also, 60% of Penn State's NCAA Division I opponents from next season had no draft picks from the 2012 NHL Draft. Furthermore, even if the drought continues, Ferris State and Union had great success last season with no NHL picks on their rosters.

Finally, Deadly Nuts, a blog that covers Ohio State hockey, concludes its draft analysis with this quote:

Aubrey wrote:
It was really great to see each of these guys get drafted this weekend and I'm really looking forward to seeing all of them (fingers crossed) in Buckeye jerseys in the near future!

Many of those committed to programs that are drafted decommit to go pro. Only one of the three Hockey East picks in the first round would state that he would even be reporting to his college campuses in the Fall. Michigan has a long history of losing committed players, especially goalies. So, mainly, what we see on paper right now, is not necessarily what Penn State will meet on the ice.

I think that GG with his experience in the Ivy League with high retention of commits and his dual emphasis upon school identity and academics has found student-athletes who are committed to coming to, representing, and earning a degree from Penn State. So, when the drafting of Penn State commits begins, we won't have to hold our collective breathes like those in Ann Arbor and Columbus.

Also, this is all not even mentioning that Penn State will have Max Gardiner wearing blue and white next season. Gardiner was the 74th Overall draft pick in the 2010 NHL Draft. Such a high selection is higher than any picks that Ohio State has, all but one of the picks Minnesota has, half of the picks Michigan State has, one of the picks Michigan has, and one of the picks Wisconsin has from the 2012 NHL Draft. I know that all recruiting classes are not created equally, but Gardiner's recruitment seems to be a good omen that Penn State has the propensity and ability to out-recruit Ohio State and fall short of only the recruiting abilities of Michigan on a regular basis.

amg424 wrote:Luke Juha, Curtis Loik, and Mark Yanis will be eligible for the 2013 NHL Draft. I think that Penn State will earn at least one pick out of them. I think that Yanis particularly is a player that will get picked up. Then, there are future recruiting classes who will enter or progress in their drafting eligibility.

IMO (isn't it all?) Juha and Yanis would need absolutely huge years at PSU to work back into the draft, because they both have the stigma of having been considered possible late picks at one time who dropped out. Juha missed the entire year with injuries after the WJAC in November and Yanis didn't seem to progress much and was largely forgotten. Zach Saar is another guy, sort of the same story as Yanis. Loik's a little bit of a different situation as a guy who might have been overshadowed on that ridiculous Penticton Vees team, and he'll probably get a better chance to shine at PSU than he did there. He better fits the profile for guys who get drafted beyond their first year of eligibility.

Chase Berger, Bo Pellah, Thomas Welsh and Eamon McAdam are all first-year eligibles next year. Since none of you will remember this in a year, I think one of them plays into a draft pick.

The draft is definitely not the end-all of putting together a talented team though. TBH, I'm not the least bit concerned about what we have right now or what's coming down the road. Put it this way: Gardiner's the NHL pick of the group, but he's only about in the middle of the pack when ranking guys I'm excited to see in blue and white - to be brutally honest, his selection was the peak of his career to date, preceding his being a fourth liner/faceoff grapher for Minnesota and a meh USHL year. Contrast that with undrafted Casey Bailey, who had a fantastic USHL year (as a 20-year-old, but still...and he's only six months older than Gardiner anyway) and right now has the look of a late-blooming sniper. Juha blamed his sinking stock leading up to last year's draft on his league, the OJHL, not being as well regarded as the BCHL, where he moved this past year and got hurt. None of that changes what I saw the times I watched him play, including against the best junior A players in the world last fall - he's an elite puck mover with great composure and hockey sense. The NHL Entry Draft isn't a referendum on future college hockey careers or even future pro success, it's important to remember that. Only something like 20% of those drafted will ever play in the NHL anyway.

With rare exceptions, I'd rather have four-year undrafted guys than be like "OMGZ, Wisconsin would totally own everyone if it weren't for our guys going pro!!!!" (one of Bucky's 5th Quarter writer Chuck Schwartz's favorite angles). Ultimately, Penn State's performance in the games it plays will tell us how good the team is. Alumni in the NHL are nice, but that's not why we're here.

amg424 wrote:What I find interesting is the dynamic within the B1G, especially when that dynamic is compared to the teams that are perennial national powers. Most of us agree that there are three tiers in the B1G. Those that have limited or no history of national success (Ohio State and, at the moment, at least, Penn State), those that are considered nationally relevant but not dominant (Michigan State), and those that are dominant and frequently national-title contenders (Michigan and Minnesota). Wisconsin is the odd program because it is usually in the second-to-last group, but peaks very sharply and abruptly into the lattermost group.

The number of 2012 NHL Draft picks has Ohio State and Michigan State with as many picks as Michigan. Shockingly, Wisconsin and Minnesota have the least. Ohio State can be distinguished from Michigan and Michigan State in that the picks of the latter two came much earlier than Ohio State's picks. However, the raw numbers might indicate that the Buckeyes won't be the push-over of the league that many thought they might be. This makes it more enticing to think of them as Penn State's rival.

I am unsure what to think of Minnesota's low number of draft picks. It is odd. Especially, considering I think that Minnesota was the program in the 2012 NCAAs with the largest number of draft picks. It was the program with the most in the 2012 Frozen Four.

Gopher fan here, checking out the future competition.

There are a couple of things at play here in regards to Minnesota low number of draft picks in the 2012 NHL Draft. First thing is that some years there will be more draft picks than others because the recruiting needs are different from year to year based on the projected number of players leaving the team via graduation or signing an NHL contract. Right now, the Gophers are actually a young team, without a large senior class.

Also, Don Lucia's recruiting philosophy has changed a bit over the last few years. I think he got tired of bringing in the big recruiting catches such as Thomas Vanek, Phil Kessel, Eric Johnson, and Kyle Okposo only to see them leave after just 2 years of college. He's brought in more of the less ballyhooed prospects such as Erik Haula and Kyle Rau (both are 7th round draft picks) who are expected to play for at least 3 if not 4 years in college. Now, we Gopher fans still expect to see just about all of our incoming recruits be drafted, at least in the lower rounds. But now I don't expect to see more than 1 or 2 first or second round draft picks among Gopher recruits every yeaer.